A full report on Santa Cruz County passenger rail costs and ridership estimates is due in August. (Stephen Baxter — Santa Cruz Local file)

Who would pay for the train?

A 22-mile passenger rail project is being planned along the Santa Cruz Branch Rail Line. 

Transportation commission staff have estimated that up to 80% of the estimated $4.3 billion to build the train could be covered by federal grants. But those grants are not assured, and would require a local contribution. The more local money the transportation commission puts towards rail, the more competitive the project would be for grant money, Christensen said. 

Grant money likely wouldn’t pay for operating the rail line. Operations are estimated to cost $34 million to $41 million annually.

The commission cannot pull additional money from Measure D, a half-cent sales tax approved by Santa Cruz County voters in 2016. That tax allocates 8% of funding for the rail corridor. 

Koenig estimated that the new sales tax would need to be at least 2 cents. The City of Santa Cruz’s sales tax is at 9.75%. An increase would make the city’s sales tax 11.75%, which would be among the highest in the state.

In an interview this week, Christensen confirmed that rail service likely would require a new sales tax of more than a half-cent. But she said more study is needed to determine how high the new tax would be.

Fares may make up part of the cost of operations, but train service is usually highly subsidized and would likely need ongoing sales tax money or another income source. 

The rail project could also eat into state funding the transportation commission receives every two years. That funding is usually doled out to county and city governments, Santa Cruz County METRO bus services and community groups like Community Bridges for paratransit. 

At Thursday’s transportation commission meeting, commissioner and Santa Cruz County Supervisor Kim De Serpa said many of her constituents “are furious about the condition of their road.” De Serpa represents county supervisor District 2, which includes Aptos, Freedom, Corralitos and parts of Watsonville and Capitola.

She added, “I don’t blame them, so I would not be in favor of swiping any of the road funds in order to push it towards the rail project.”

A consultant would need to do additional financial analysis to determine how the transportation commission could pay to build and operate rail service, Christensen said.

Supervisor Justin Cummings said he remained optimistic about receiving funding for rail service. “Over the course of time that we’ve been trying to implement the rail trail, the commission staff have been really good at securing funding — even when people think that it can’t be done,” he said.

A train like this one in San Bernardino County was selected for preliminary study purposes in Santa Cruz County, a June 6 report stated. (HDR Engineering Inc.)

How does the proposed Santa Cruz County passenger rail compare to other rail systems and highways?

A rail line in Santa Cruz County could cost more to build than it has cost to build a similar line in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit, or SMART, spans Sonoma and Marin counties in the North Bay. In 2017, a 43-mile line opened from Santa Rosa in Sonoma County to San Rafael in Marin County. Two more miles of rail south to Larkspur Landing in Marin County were added in 2019. Future plans call for a 35-mile expansion north to Cloverdale in north Sonoma County.

SMART’s operating costs are similar to projections for rail in Santa Cruz County, and SMART’s current ridership is similar to the projected Santa Cruz line ridership in 2045.

The Santa Cruz County line likely would be much costlier to build.

In 2017, SMART leaders reported that the 43-mile train line from Santa Rosa to San Rafael cost about $500 million to build — much lower than the estimated $4.3 billion cost for a 22-mile rail line in Santa Cruz, even adjusted for inflation.

That’s in part because the Santa Cruz Branch Rail Line has more bridges and they are in worse shape. Transportation commission staff have estimated a nearly $1 billion cost to repair or rebuild the 33 bridges on the rail line.

The estimated cost to construct the rail line is much higher than previous estimates because the tracks and bridges are in worse condition than previously thought, said Riley Gerbrandt, project manager for the rail project. Staff thought the new rail service would require “rehabilitation or refurbishing of the existing rail line,” he said. Analysis for the conceptual report revealed that “we’re really looking at starting from scratch with a lot of the rail infrastructure,” Gerbrandt said.

Proponents of passenger rail in Santa Cruz County have said that expanding Highway 1 in Santa Cruz County and adding bus-on-shoulder lanes has also been costly. Two attendees at Thursday night’s meeting said that the total cost was about $1 billion. Christensen said staff could give the total at a future meeting, but said that figure “sounded a little high.”

Some proponents of passenger rail have framed the costs of passenger rail as an equity issue. They said investments should be made to help South County residents commute to North County jobs. 

Former Santa Cruz County supervisor candidate Lani Faulker said a county without rail service has “hidden costs” for residents who can’t afford cars. She said that failing to decrease car traffic would harm the environment. 

“We need to get cars off the road,” she said.

By the year 2045, riders would make 3,500 to 6,000 trips on the train each weekday, the June 6 executive summary projected.

Transportation commissioner and Santa Cruz County Supervisor Felipe Hernandez said the commission should think of rail service as a generational investment. Hernandez represents a large part of South County. “I see it as sort of something that can be done for our children and our children’s children,” he said. “I would hate to be the person that killed the project that is going to be needed in 35 years, 40 years.”

Nine train stations are proposed, including alternatives for the end of the line on Natural Bridges Drive or Depot Park in Santa Cruz. (HDR Engineering Inc.)

What’s next?

Transportation commission staff have not requested a vote at Thursday’s meeting. They have planned a public hearing to accept the full report in August. 

Eventually, the commission must decide whether to continue with plans for passenger rail. The next step towards rail construction would be environmental review, which would cost an estimated $12 million to $14 million. A state grant may bear some of that cost, but the transportation commission wouldn’t be able to apply for it until at least 2027. 

The commission could also reopen a conversation about railbanking, which would remove the legal obligation to keep the existing freight rails in place. Railbanking is a lengthy process that requires approval from federal authorities. It would likely provoke pushback from leaders of Roaring Camp Railroads, which would be cut off from the state rail network. 

Members of Santa Cruz Greenway — the pro-trail group that put Measure D on the ballot in 2022 — have advocated for railbanking as a way to widen the rail trail. Measure D was widely seen as a referendum on whether to prioritize a wider trail over passenger rail, and it failed with 27% of the vote.

Railbanking wouldn’t necessarily close the door on transit for the rail corridor. With the requirement for freight service gone, the commission could consider other types of transit on the corridor, such as light rail or a bus line, or they could build a commuter rail line that doesn’t meet the standards for heavier freight vehicles. 

Transportation commission staff would have to do additional research to determine the potential consequences of stopping plans for rail or pursuing railbanking, Christensen said. 

In 2012, the transportation commission purchased the rail line from Union Pacific with state money. Some rail advocates have said if the transportation commission doesn’t pursue rail, they would have to pay back the state for the corridor. It’s not clear if that’s the case, Christensen said.

The full concept report expected in August is also set to include preliminary designs and cost estimates for the Coastal Rail Trail from Aptos to Watsonville. That project could be pursued alongside or separately from rail service, transportation leaders have said.

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