Once the conceptual report is published, the commission could vote to move forward with environmental review for rail service. But they are short an estimated $12 million to $14 million for the review — and it’s unclear when or if they could secure funding.

Commission staff were pursuing a state grant for rail planning, but the grant program is now on hold amid uncertainty about federal funding for California’s rail plans, said Sarah Christensen, the commission’s executive director. Another possible source of funding is “not likely to come to fruition until 2027 — if we get prioritized,” she said.

In February 2024, commission staff said they hoped to finish environmental review in 2027 and begin construction in 2032. Now, the timeline is murkier and likely longer. 

“We may expect to see less investments in rail in the future, but that doesn’t mean that the project is never going to happen,” Christensen said. “It just means that the project could take a whole lot longer than we originally envisioned when we started this process under the previous administration.”

Commission staff were set to publish a report in March with details on the cost and design of a future rail system. But this week, Christensen said staff need more time to consider all of the options for the rail line. She now expects to release the report in the fall.

“Instead of rushing through — especially since we don’t have any funding deadlines on this project— I think it’s worthwhile to take our time and work through these things and get it right,” she said.

The conceptual report is also expected to include preliminary designs for a trail between Rio Del Mar and Pajaro. Those plans could be advanced separately from plans for rail, Christensen said. 

The changes in federal funding may also stall plans for the rail trail along segments 10 and 11 in Live Oak and Aptos, Christensen said last month.

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