As of Friday afternoon, the National Weather Service was predicting 2 to 3 inches of rain in Santa Cruz County from a storm expected to arrive Monday morning. (National Weather Service)

SANTA CRUZ COUNTY >> The first storm of the season is expected to drench Santa Cruz County Monday and Tuesday, with 2 inches of rain anticipated across the county and 3 inches in the Santa Cruz Mountains. 

“This is going to be the first big rain of the season,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Brayden Murdock. 

The chances of heavy rain and flash floods was “marginal,” or less than 5% likelihood, according to a Friday afternoon post on X by the National Weather Service.

Residents can expect the storm to arrive Monday morning with rates of rainfall increasing into the night. The storm is expected to pass by Wednesday morning with some lingering showers.

Getting at least 1 inch of rain across the county is “pretty set in stone,” Murdock said, and more extreme estimates above 3 inches are less likely at this time. Some models were predicting above 3 inches in the Santa Cruz Mountains and others about 2.5 inches. Forecasts will be more certain closer to Monday.

For the latest forecasts, visit the National Weather Service Monterey Bay Area website or call 831-656-1725 and press 1. National Weather Service staff also post weather advisories and tips on social media.

“As far as the highest of the high rainfall rates in the Santa Cruz Mountains, it’s probably going to be Monday evening going into Tuesday morning,” he said.

High winds are not anticipated in the Santa Cruz Mountains at this time, but are expected in the Monterey Bay. 

Windy conditions unrelated to the coming storm system led to a gale warning for Saturday and Sunday in the Monterey Bay and off the coast of Santa Cruz and Monterey counties with winds up to 50 mph. 

“We can probably expect prolonged windy conditions going into the mid-week as this next system arrives,” Murdock said, adding that wind advisories and warnings are issued at most two days in advance.

With the first storm of the season, residents are advised to clear gutters and storm drains to avoid flooding.

“Make sure your property has proper drainage. Sometimes people, towards the edge of their property might have loaded up leaves or trash,” he said. “It’s a good thing to prepare by cleaning out certain pathways to let the water drain through your property.”

Trees and other debris that have gathered in rivers and tributaries since the last big storm can also be a hazard, Murdock said. “Sometimes, the first big rain of the season is also a test of our river systems.”

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