
Storm surf washes against Capitola restaurants after floods in January 2023. (Grace Stetson — Santa Cruz Local file)
Key takeaways
- Scientists expect several feet of sea-level rise in Santa Cruz County in the coming decades as the global climate warms, potentially submerging beaches and severely eroding cliffs.
- California law requires local governments to plan for sea-level rise. Strategies can include protecting the coast, using natural ecosystems and moving human development inland.
- The California Coastal Commission limits homeowners and local governments from protecting homes with seawalls and other barriers.
SANTA CRUZ >> Floodwaters spilling through Capitola Village. Waves lapping the base of the Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk. Seacliff State Beach fully submerged.
These aren’t predictions for the next major storm. They could happen during an ordinary high tide in the year 2100, according to some recent studies.
In recent years, storm surf in Monterey Bay has separated the Capitola Wharf, repeatedly flooded Capitola Village and parts of Rio Del Mar, collapsed parts of West Cliff Drive and, most recently, ripped about 150 feet of pilings, wood and a building from the end of the Santa Cruz Municipal Wharf. As the climate warms, coastal damage is expected to grow more frequent.
A 2023 state law requires local governments across the California coast to plan for sea-level rise in the coming decades.
In Santa Cruz County, the process has not been easy — and future decisions about whether to fortify the coast or draw back may be even more difficult. Decision makers must plan for futures they won’t live to see, while coastal residents and business owners must face compounding risks or opt to leave.
Multiple efforts are underway to use restored coastal habitats to soften the damage from swells and try to avoid costly seawalls that could drown the county’s beaches.
“The ocean does not care whether we try to fight it or not,” said Scott Rohlf, a State Parks planner. “It doesn’t have to spend money fighting us. So for me, it’s always the question of, how can we work with the ocean?”
For Debra Szecsei, who lives on West Cliff Drive near Mitchell’s Cove, the ocean has recently become a more disruptive neighbor. During historic storms in December 2023 and January 2024, waves reached over the cliff and crashed into the road, loosening chunks of pavement.
“The ocean was really angry,” Szecsei said. “The spray was coming into my front yard. There was sea foam everywhere.”
City reinforcements to the cliff side help her feel safer for future storms. But “there are so many parts of the coast that are vulnerable,” she said. “You just don’t know where the next thing is going to happen.”
Defend, accommodate, retreat
Disasters aren’t completely out of the norm for Santa Cruz County. In 1958, a coastal storm whipped up “house-sized breakers” on the Capitola Esplanade and knocked horses from a carousel, the Santa Cruz Sentinel reported.
But climate change has made the normal processes of flooding and erosion more frequent and more violent. As carbon emissions rise, the planet warms and weather patterns change, powerful storms are set to exacerbate erosion and send seawater inland.
It’s uncertain how quickly seas will rise, in part because the future of the climate depends on to what extent countries continue to burn fossil fuels and emit greenhouse gases. The most recent guidance from the Ocean Protection Council recommends planning for an estimated 3-7 feet of sea-level rise by 2100.
In Santa Cruz County, 5 feet of sea-level rise would nearly submerge many beaches, including Santa Cruz Main Beach, Capitola Beach and Seacliff State Beach. Large chunks of West Cliff would continue to erode, along with areas of Capitola’s Cliff Drive, according to reports from State Parks and the cities of Santa Cruz and Capitola.
An interactive map shows potential sea-level rise of varying degrees in Santa Cruz County. Many beaches could be submerged as well as acres of farmland near Pajaro Dunes. (NOAA data, map by Jesse Kathan)
An interactive map shows potential sea-level rise of varying degrees in Santa Cruz County. Many beaches could be submerged as well as acres of farmland near Pajaro Dunes. (NOAA data, map by Jesse Kathan)

Homes along Soquel Creek in Capitola are vulnerable to floods with projected sea-level rise, according to NOAA data. (Stephen Baxter — Santa Cruz Local file)
Kelsey Ducklow, a climate change analyst with the California Coastal Commission, said sea-level rise adaptation falls into three main categories: Defending the existing coast with seawalls and other structures, accommodating rising tides by raising or reinforcing buildings, and retreating by moving homes and roads inland.
Plans in Santa Cruz County will likely include elements of all three strategies, but finding the balance between them is tricky, Ducklow said.
“The question of this planning process is, what set of strategies from those categories make sense right now? What is going to make sense over time? How does it shift over time?” she asked. “There’s no single answer or silver bullet.”

A 2019 map shows the median risk projection of sea-level rise on West Cliff Drive in Santa Cruz. (Revell Coastal and City of Santa Cruz)
Armoring
Over the past 50 years, coastal armoring has been California’s default strategy to contend with an unruly sea. Since the 1960s, the City of Santa Cruz has installed large boulders known as rip rap at the base of West Cliff to stem coastal erosion. Further south, much of Capitola Beach and Seacliff State Beach is backed by wooden and concrete walls.
Armoring is a key part of the City of Santa Cruz’s short-term plans for West Cliff. The city’s draft five-year roadmap recommends restacking rip rap and other armor for an estimated $15 million, plus $500,000 annually for maintenance.
But future armoring of the coastline will likely be limited. For the Coastal Commission, a state agency tasked with stewardship of beaches and bluffs, the harms of armoring often outweigh the benefits.
As the sea rises, coastal bluffs retreat and sand migrates inward, preserving beaches. But if seawalls or boulders prevent the shoreline from receding, the beach has nowhere to go, and vanishes under the tide.
“If we just armor the entire coastline, then we will have no more beaches, and not much surf,” said Matt Machado, Santa Cruz County director of community development and infrastructure.
State law allows armoring only for homes, roads and other structures built before 1977. Newer homes must waive their right to any future seawalls or other armoring.
Santa Cruz County has already butted up against those rules. In 2022, the commission denied an update of the county’s plan for coastal development on the grounds that it over-relied on armoring, particularly between Pleasure Point and the Capitola border.
Commission staff wrote that the proposed plan prioritized “high end private residential development at the expense of the public’s shoreline beach and ocean resources.”
A revised plan under development “will be a mixed bag” of strategies. Machado said. While some amoring could protect homes in the short-term, “it won’t be in perpetuity,” he said.

Waves smash into a seawall near Steamer Lane in Santa Cruz in December. Some sand at Its Beach below has been submerged in recent years. (Barbara Perman)
Living shorelines
A softer version of coastal protection uses sand dunes and native plants, not concrete, to bolster the shore. So-called “living shorelines” aim to restore ecosystems that have been largely displaced by development.
The practice could be a key strategy on many of Santa Cruz County’s state beaches, said Rohlf, the State Parks planner. In recent community outreach, residents have been more supportive of living shorelines and other “nature-based solutions” than traditional armoring, Rohlf said. As a longtime resident of Santa Cruz County and a former Capitola junior lifeguard, he said he understands why.
“Growing up here and being a beach kid, it’s of interest to me to retain those beaches for future beach kids,” he said.
In Rio Del Mar, a small-scale living shoreline has been in place since 2022 when a state parks contractor built a backbone of driftwood and covered the structure with sand. The dune has successfully prevented Aptos Creek from eroding the foundation of a nearby bathroom, Rohlf said. This summer, a nonprofit partnering with State Parks plans to plant native plants in the sand and further reconstruct the natural dune ecosystem.
The City of Santa Cruz is pursuing a similar project at Main Beach, by the mouth of the San Lorenzo River. Early designs call for a sand dune with native plants, anchored with wood and small stones.
There are tradeoffs to pursuing living shorelines over armoring — for one, sand is less effective than concrete at stopping huge waves.
“A seawall is very good at protecting what’s behind it, but it’s also very good at compromising the beach that’s in front of it,” Rohlf said. A living shoreline “is not as good at protecting the things behind it, but it can help preserve the beach in front of it.”
Gary Griggs, a UCSC oceanographer and a consultant on the Main Beach project, has contended that living shorelines have limited usefulness on the California coast, especially where powerful ocean currents crash directly into the shore. “This is not going to keep Main Beach from eroding,” he said of the possible dune restoration. “It’s not meant to protect the Boardwalk. It’s more seen as a pilot project — could we do something there that might survive for a longer period of time?”

Sandstone cliff erosion is shown from Mitchell’s Cove to Steamer Lane in Santa Cruz. (Revell Coastal and City of Santa Cruz)
Retreat strategies
Where protecting the shore isn’t an option, local governments may have to deploy a much more controversial strategy — retreat.
In Pacifica, proposed plans to gradually draw back from the ocean provoked wide-scale backlash against the Coastal Commission and the ouster of a city mayor. Closer to home, the possibility of transforming West Cliff Drive into a one-way road next to a wider pedestrian and bike path has raised ire from many residents concerned with changing traffic patterns.
“Retreat is probably the best way to make sure that people and development are safe from flooding, bluff erosion, cliff collapses,” and help preserve beaches, said Ducklow, the climate change analyst. “But that doesn’t mean it’s appropriate everywhere.”
“Even if we’re talking about managed retreat, that doesn’t mean we are saying everything tomorrow needs to get ripped out,” she said.
In some parts of the state, sudden cliff erosion and bluff collapses “have forced retreat to happen,” Ducklow said. “We don’t want to be in that situation in 75 years. So we are starting these conversations now so that we can actually get to this in an ordered way.”
The City of Santa Cruz may get its first taste of managed retreat within the next five years with the anticipated relocation of a stretch of West Cliff Drive about 50 feet inland.

A rendering shows West Cliff Drive moved into part of Lighthouse Field. (City of Santa Cruz)
A longer-term idea laid out in the city’s 50-year vision for West Cliff is to buy parts of private lots on West Cliff Drive and shift more of the road away from the crumbling coast. But state bills to clear the way for buyouts have been shot down twice.
In 2021 and 2023, the state legislature approved bills that would have provided local governments low-interest loans to buy coastal property from private landowners. However, Gov. Gavin Newsom vetoed both proposals over funding concerns.
Tiffany Wise-West, the city of Santa Cruz’s sustainability and resiliency officer, said the city has no plans to explore a buyout program in the near term, and that future plans will require more study and feedback from the public and city council.
“Truly, there are big and challenging discussions ahead,” she said.
Griggs, the UCSC oceanographer, said that although the Federal Emergency Management Agency has offered buyout programs for storm-damaged properties on the East Coast, a local- or state-led program here would be a “hard sell.” Besides the cost of buying multimillion dollar properties, the newly city-owned properties would no longer bring in property tax money.
“Particularly with our budget shortfalls, I don’t think anybody in California, except for the people that live on the oceanfront, are going to be at all keen to fund the people who are wealthy enough to be able to afford to live on the coast,” he said.
Capitola’s future
Within Santa Cruz County, Capitola is one of the areas most vulnerable to coastal storms and rising tides, Griggs said. The city, much of which is built at sea level, “has been damaged significantly 22 times since the first records appear in the mid- to the late-1800s,” he said.
Adaptation planning in Capitola has been limited by its smaller budget and staff, said Capitola Public Works Director Jessica Kahn. This year, city staff are focusing their energy on plans to reinforce Cliff Drive, which overlooks Capitola Village, from coastal erosion.
A 2020 plan for natural disaster preparation calls for moving or elevating Capitola City Hall and police and fire stations by 2035. It also considers a new floodwall along Soquel Creek and a higher seawall behind Capitola Beach for the coming decades.
But with the Coastal Commission’s attitude towards armoring, “I don’t see us just building a giant wall,” Kahn said.
“We would look into all alternatives to kind of keep the village where it is, but there are also the realities of climate change and sea-level rise,” she said. “It’s obviously a huge priority to preserve that area of our city, but also, that there’s realities that are yet to be seen.”
Even if Capitola did pursue a higher seawall, it would only be a temporary solution, Griggs said. “Ultimately, we cannot build sea walls high enough to hold back the Pacific Ocean,” he said. “So it’s a matter of time and cost.”

A large ocean swell sheared off the end of the Santa Cruz Municipal Wharf on Dec. 23. A restroom drifted to the mouth of the San Lorenzo River. (Tom Gigliotti)
At the Sand Bar Capitola, a waterfront restaurant at Soquel Creek and Capitola Beach, rising seas are an existential threat. Owners Jeff and Minna Lantis were already straining under loans from Covid lockdowns when coastal storms in January 2023 destroyed the floor of the Sand Bar and shuttered it for six months.
Jeff Lantis said he wants to see the city take a more active role in protecting the Capitola Village, and wants the Coastal Commission to be more open to armoring. He said though he worries about the next storm, he’s not ready to move out of the ocean’s path.
“It’s a very challenging business,” he said. “But look, I’m sitting right on the beach, so I can’t complain. I would fight over and over and over for this place. I dreamed about a place like this all my life. So I’m not going to give up.”
Back on West Cliff Drive, Szecsei is also waiting for the next storm, but likewise doesn’t plan on moving.
“People choose to live where there’s natural beauty, and then you kind of take your chances,” she said. “I guess that’s kind of what I’m doing, taking my chances — but it’s still a great place to live.”
Read more:
- Explainer: How does the California Coastal Commission work? – May 18, 2023
- Maps: Could a tsunami in Santa Cruz County reach your home? – Dec. 6, 2024
- ‘Living shoreline’ concepts try to stem storm damage on Santa Cruz County coast – Oct. 6, 2023
- Santa Cruz aims for new approaches to West Cliff Drive erosion — Dec. 3, 2020
What do you think?
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Jesse Kathan is a staff reporter for Santa Cruz Local through the California Local News Fellowship. They hold a master's degree in science communications from UC Santa Cruz.